Financial Model

Admission-based model

An interactive 5-year model for the bathhouse admission business. Every input on the left is editable and the P&L recalculates immediately. Built from the "Admission Based Model" and revenue structure in the Hot Water brief.

Placeholder assumptions. The source model was marked incomplete: project size, build cost, capacity, ticket price, and occupancy ramp are real; per-visitor spend, COGS rates, and operating-expense lines are round placeholders pending real quotes. Edit any of them.

Inputs

Capex & capacity

Project size (sf)

Build cost ($)

All-in project cost ($)

Operating days / year

Daily capacity (guests)

Occupancy by year (%)

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Admission mix — blended tiers

Communal soak — $

Communal — % of guests

Private session — $

Private — % of guests

Premium / retreat — $

Premium — % of guests

Blended ticket–

Revenue per guest ($)

Food & beverage

Retail

Memberships (recurring)

Members (year 1)

Member growth / yr (%)

Annual dues ($)

COGS

Processing fees (% rev)

Supplies / guest ($)

F&B cost (% F&B)

Retail cost (% retail)

Operating expenses ($/yr)

Payroll

Professional fees

Marketing

Occupancy (rent/utils)

G&A

Contingency (% rev)

–

Year 3 revenue

–

Year 3 EBITDA

–

Year 3 EBITDA margin

–

EBITDA break-even

–

Payback on all-in cost

5-Year P&L	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5

Two break-even numbers, on purpose. The brief's "break-even 2.5 years" (inherited from the Submersive pitch) means payback on all-in project cost — cumulative EBITDA covering the $3M build. The model now uses a blended-tier rate (the Ten Thousand Waves playbook): most guests pay a low communal price, a minority book premium private/retreat sessions that lift the average. Edit the tier prices and shares on the left and watch both the blended ticket and the payback KPI move; EBITDA break-even and payback both improve sharply versus a flat $40.

Blended rate vs. comps

Comparable	Admission / session
SweatHouz (intro), Phoenix metro	~$40
— Hot Water communal tier	$45
Ten Thousand Waves — communal soak	$64
Hot Water — blended	$68
Bathhouse (NYC)	$45–80
Ten Thousand Waves — private suite	$89
— Hot Water private tier	$90
Nordik Spa-nature	$90
Submersive (Austin) — Yr 1 avg ticket	$117
Aire Ancient Baths NY	$150
— Hot Water premium/retreat tier	$190

The blended rate lands mid-pack — above the function-first chains, below the ultra-premium baths — while keeping a genuinely accessible communal tier. Tune the mix on the left.

Sources & notes. Capacity, ticket, size, build/all-in cost, and occupancy ramp are from the Hot Water "Admission Based Model" (itself adapted from the Submersive investor pitch). Revenue = guests × per-guest spend (entry, F&B, retail) plus recurring membership dues (members × annual fee, growing each year) — a stream the original brief omitted but every bathhouse comp relies on. COGS and operating-expense lines follow the brief's revenue structure (Payroll, Professional Fees, Marketing, Occupancy, G&A, Contingency). Per-guest spend, membership assumptions, and expense levels are placeholders for real quotes. Comp admission prices: operator sites and the Phoenix market scan (SweatHouz, Ten Thousand Waves) · Submersive figures from its investor pitch. "Update Deck" downloads a deck-data.json for the Deck to pick up.